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Forum:2013 Atlantic hurricane season
Only June 01 2013 00:00:00 UTC until the Atlantic hurricane season starts... Future start Coming in slightly more than one month :D.--Isaac829 19:41, April 23, 2013 (UTC) Could be earlier than that Isaac as the Euro,cmc and Gfs are hinting and actually showing sub tropical storm Andrea near the Florida coast in a week.even though is not likely it could very well happen.Allanjeffs 14:58, April 26, 2013 (UTC) : Looks kinda interesting, if this happens, it would be the second straight year with pre-season activity, like 2007-2008. While I think it'll be a while until we see Andrea, it's not out of the question we could see pre-season activity. No invests thus far this year; the last two seasons had some pre-season invests, including one that almost developed in early February last year. Ryan1000 15:18, April 26, 2013 (UTC) ::: I spy with my little eye...a blob in the GOM. This might have a chance if it doesn't crash into Florida. Ryan1000 12:56, May 1, 2013 (UTC) ::: That it would crash it would I think after it cross Florida it may have a chance.Allanjeffs 16:42, May 1, 2013 (UTC) ::::: Meh, it's dead. Andrea will come later on. Ryan1000 18:12, May 2, 2013 (UTC) ::::: Actually Ryan right now after Crossing Florida it looks the best it ever have if wasn`t for the front coming we may actually get something.Allanjeffs 20:34, May 3, 2013 (UTC) ::::::: Yeah, because of the front, I don't see much from this. The weather pattern this year is odd, with record heat, rain, and even snow in May, but I really don't know what the hurricane season will have in this ENSO-neutral season. The jetstream is in an odd position in the central U.S, but I don't know what this will mean for U.S. landfalls or impacts as 2013 progresses. 2005 was also ENSO-neutral, but that year had perfect conditions year round; it just didn't stop. I doubt 2013 will be like 2005, but it's not impossible. Ryan1000 15:54, May 4, 2013 (UTC) ::::::: The Atlantic hurricane season has begun! AndrewTalk To Me 00:09, June 1, 2013 (UTC) ::::::: 5and a half ours for me for the season to start.Allanjeffs 00:32, June 1, 2013 (UTC) Betting pools Atlantic and East Pacific. We have some new sections this year, and a modification for the pressure section for ranges of pressures instead of specific numbers. Also, the Hall of Fame is open, in case anyone wants to put their thoughts there. Ryan1000 22:15, September 27, 2012 (UTC) September 11L.JERRY AOI.Central Atlantic 10% on the TWO, but forecast to move northwest and eventually northeast away from land. Might become Jerry on the way though. Ryan1000 18:14, September 26, 2013 (UTC) Due to heavy shear, I do not expect any development from this system. AndrewTalk To Me 23:00, September 26, 2013 (UTC) : But the models predict a C1 from JERRY! JERRY! JERRY! But I dunno what that mouse would do. Should develop in the Western Caribbean, then make his way to Florida, then probably get chased by Tom Karen. HAHA, the fun has been doubled! 23:08, September 26, 2013 (UTC) : Then lorenzo shall come in about 2 weeks with mel nestor. honestly. ok? ok. I LIKE TRAINS 23:27, September 26, 2013 (UTC) :: Lol, you like trains? O.O But anyway, I don't think we will see much from this guy. It might develop in the long term once environmental conditions become a little more favorable, but still, it'll probably just be another weak and dumpy storm. C'mon Atlantic, why do you have to be so boring this year? Seriously, come on, boring oceans. I'll place a 500 degrees Fahrenheit heater under the Atlantic, and also build a huge wind shear sucker to get rid of all the wind shear. Nah, just kidding, because if I did that, then there will be huge hypercanes roaming the Atlantic. But the Atlantic really needs to pick up the pace once October comes, but I just hope that there isn't any doomsday storms similar to Mitch in 1998 and Sandy in 2012. I still think the Atlantic will end at Melissa. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 02:04, September 28, 2013 (UTC) :: Up to 40% might become Jerry but it will not pass from minimal ts.Allanjeffs 03:02, September 28, 2013 (UTC) :::Let this bust, then. We haven't had a Hurricane Jerry since 1989, and I was hoping he could make a comeback this year. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 12:39, September 28, 2013 (UTC) 96L.INVEST Unfortunately for me, this thing is now invest'd and up to 40% for two days and 50% for five. Here comes Jerry ... --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 12:46, September 28, 2013 (UTC) Fortunately for me it looks poise to develop,here comes another weak Jerry.Allanjeffs 14:49, September 28, 2013 (UTC) Up to 60% here comes Jerry.Allanjeffs 19:11, September 28, 2013 (UTC) JERRY! JERRY! JERRY! Just make sure you don't get chased by that evil grey cat! I think he'll be like Nadal last year, you know that C1? PARTY TIME!!! I LIKE TRAINS 19:05, September 28, 2013 (UTC) : Looks like this'll just be a repeat of his 2007 incarnation, but further from land. Sigh...here comes another fail. Ryan1000 19:14, September 28, 2013 (UTC) :::: Ahhh, don't think so. C1 for me, bro. SO WUT JEZ, COME AT ME AND KAREN BRO :O humberto but further to the west, lol. IT'S PEANUT BUTTER JERRY TIME! (and I liek trainz) 19:22, September 28, 2013 (UTC) ::::: I don't think we will see a hurricane from this, environmental conditions aren't that ''favorable. Jerry will have to be an epic fail this year, similar to his 2007 incarnation. Sigh...When are we gonna get a C2 or a major? [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] [[Message Wall:Steven09876 #top|''T]] | 23:57, September 28, 2013 (UTC) ::::: This will be another 45 to 60mph storm at best.Allanjeffs 01:22, September 29, 2013 (UTC) ::::: Upgrade to td 11 by ATCF,Jerry would probably come tomorrow morning.Allanjeffs 01:41, September 29, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Depression Eleven Yep, expected to execute a loop.--Isaac829 02:39, September 29, 2013 (UTC) : Gah, you beat me to it!! But anyway, its predicted track looks a little weird. And it also looks to be another weak TS... [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 02:49, September 29, 2013 (UTC) ::: Yeah, expect Jerry, nothing else more.Isaac829 03:09, September 29, 2013 (UTC) ::::: Some of the models predicted an odd track with this one, but due to only marginal conditions at best, I don't expect this storm (Jerry) to get past 60 mph. Ryan1000 06:26, September 29, 2013 (UTC) ::::::Well, since this depression is only forecast to reach 40 knots (45 mph), Jerry might just repeat his 2007 failure. Currently, this depression is at 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h)/1010 mbar (29.83 inHg). Sorry to kill the enthusiasm, but this depression will remain weak. AndrewTalk To Me 22:37, September 29, 2013 (UTC) ::::::Told you it will fail the past 2 years the J storms have been pretty weak and short living,looks like this one would continue the streak and the curse of weak jerry.Allanjeffs 22:49, September 29, 2013 (UTC) :::::::Forecast/advisory is out very early this time around. Still a depression, still forecast to somewhat strengthen. I'm kinda hoping it doesn't at this point, since I'm hoping for a strong Jerry (a strong Karen even more so). --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 02:35, September 30, 2013 (UTC) ::::::: Its becoming a little better organized.Should become Jerry in the morning if it continues.Allanjeffs 04:32, September 30, 2013 (UTC) :::::::11th tropical storm of the season by ATCFAL, 11, 2013093012, , BEST, 0, 268N, 463W, 35, 1008, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 40, 0, 0, 1016, 90, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, JERRY, M,.The fails continue.Allanjeffs 12:50, September 30, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Storm Jerry Of course it is. It seems as though whenever I say I hope something will happen, the Atlantic gives me the opposite. Jerry, whatever you do, don't become a Category 5 pointed at open water! --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 18:32, September 30, 2013 (UTC) : so.... PARTY! PARTY! IMMA PARTY, IMMA PARTY, IMMA PARTY, PARTY, PARTY! After not seeing an Atlantic storm for about 1-2 weeks, we finally have something to look at! JERRY! JERRY! JERRY! :D Anyway, who's excited?! I most certainly am!!! :D IT'S PEANUT BUTTER JERRY TIME! (and I liek trainz) 18:55, September 30, 2013 (UTC) ::45 kts/1005 mbar per ATCF. AL, 11, 2013100100, , BEST, 0, 275N, 440W, 45, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 50, 40, 40, 1016, 150, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, JERRY, M, --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 00:38, October 1, 2013 (UTC) ::Might become a weak hurricane but it doesn`t help the ace and how terrible it has been.Even 1997 which was in a Super El Niño had this terrible ACE.Allanjeffs 00:44, October 1, 2013 (UTC) ::::Even 2006 and 2009, also both in El Nino events, had better ACEs than this season at this time of year. Since this formed in September, we'll keep it part of the September archive until it dies out. Well, I gotta say I'm bummed we have another failure storm... Ryan1000 01:01, October 1, 2013 (UTC) :::::Jerry is here, but we have another pathetic epic failure storm. The ACE has really been terrible this year, and this season has probably one of the lowest ACEs in a long time! God, the Atlantic has been REALLY boring this year. Even a few El Nino years have had better ACEs at this point of the year than 2013. -.- [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 02:28, October 1, 2013 (UTC) :::::Not an epic failure because it might become our third hurricane.Allanjeffs 05:04, :::::October 1, 2013 (UTC) :::::And I was wrong down to 45mph,Jerry continues to fail.Allanjeffs 12:15, October 1, 2013 (UTC) :::::WHY IS THIS SEASON SO BORING?!?!?!?!?!?! Leeboy100 (talk) 00:23, October 2, 2013 (UTC) :::::::Make that 40 mph. Ryan1000 17:52, October 2, 2013 (UTC) October 97L.INVEST AOI.SW Caribbean This one looks like it'll become Karen after the above system becomes Jerry. 10% for two days and 30% for five. I don't expect this to become a huge storm, but it could become a TS, or maybe C1, as it moves northwest towards the GoM. Ryan1000 19:14, September 28, 2013 (UTC) Imma think C2/3ish here, Brady. First major, woo! IT'S PEANUT BUTTER JERRY TIME! (and I liek trainz) 19:18, September 28, 2013 (UTC) : This might become a hurricane, but I'm not placing my money on a Category 2 or a major just yet. I will be watching out for Karen during the next few days. But who knows, Dylan (HM99)'s mom's name could ''become something significant... [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] [[Message Wall:Steven09876 #top|''T]] | 00:01, September 29, 2013 (UTC) : well lorenzo will definately crank it up. karen? I'm pretty confident about her ;) IT'S PEANUT BUTTER JERRY TIME! (and I liek trainz) 00:50, September 29, 2013 (UTC) : This possible Karen will be a ts and maybe a cat 1 but conditions are not favorable for something strong as it will run into Cuba and then into Florida and it needs to fight against dry air.Allanjeffs 01:19, September 29, 2013 (UTC) 97L.INVEST upgrade to 97l should become a td in the week and Karen later on.cat 1 at most if not a ts.Allanjeffs 07:35, September 29, 2013 (UTC) ::: Yeah, like I said, this won't be anywhere close to being a cat 2 or 3, cat 1 would be the best I'd expect from this. Only marginally favorable conditions for development and proximity to land should keep this storm from exploding, but I'd be quite surprised if this doesn't become Karen. Ryan1000 06:26, September 29, 2013 (UTC) ::::Fixed the header again Allan, sorry if this format isn't letting you get the header right. For future reference guys, if the headers are sticking out on you like that, you can switch the page format from visual mode to source mode (above where it says more+) and put the header back to the front of the page. Ryan1000 20:21, September 29, 2013 (UTC) :::::Invest 97L has a 20% chance of formation in the next two days and a 40% chance in the next five days. Gusty rainfall is expected for the Greater Antilles in the coming few days. By the way, no one has mentioned this yet, but 'K' names have been very cursed recently. The last 'K' storm that did not reach hurricane intensity was Tropical Storm Katrina in 1999. Since then, every Atlantic 'K' storm has reached hurricane intensity; in this streak you will find a trio of major hurricanes (Kate, Karl '04, Katrina) and two other destructive Latin American hurricanes (Keith and Karl '10). I am rooting for a Category 1 hurricane so the 'K' curse continues... AndrewTalk To Me 22:43, September 29, 2013 (UTC) ::::::Considering this is 2013, the curse probably will be broken. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 22:51, September 29, 2013 (UTC) :::::No problem Ryan,hmm this will maybe be a td or ts conditions are not even that favorable anymore for a hurricane this year have bring fail after fail.Allanjeffs 22:52, September 29, 2013 (UTC) :::::Down to 10% might not develop at all.Allanjeffs 00:12, September 30, 2013 (UTC) :::::::Or MAYBE it might!?! Who knows? Grape jelly and sour cream on spicy tortillas are the best. 19:07, September 30, 2013 (UTC) This will now be an October storm if it does develop. Not that I expect it to anyways. Oh, and a round up from September, this year's ACE is currently 72% below average for this time of year. In fact, since 1950, only 4 seasons (1962, 1977, 1983, and 1994, 1983 and 1994 of which were El Nino years), had a lower ACE than this season so far. We've had a near-normal number of named storms so far (Jerry's our 10th), but only 2 hurricanes and still no majors. Typically we see 8 storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 major by this time of year. Goes to show this year has really been dead up until now. But then again, October is no month to be taken lightly, as last year and 1998 showed. We could still see a historic storm in October, but like I said before, unless we get a miraculous explosion of activity in this month, we're not going to beat record-dead ACE numbers. Ryan1000 01:01, October 1, 2013 (UTC) : Wow, the ACE this year sucks!!! I don't think we will see a historic storm in October, considering that this is 2013. Back to the AOI, I think it might only be a tropical storm, but I'm really hoping for a hurricane out of this. We've had enough weak storms this season. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 02:33, October 1, 2013 (UTC) ::: Well, if it becomes a hurricane, hopefully not too strong. Now at 30% while Jerry still churns over water. Actually, it was revised to say 70% below average ACE, but still. Ryan1000 23:46, October 1, 2013 (UTC) Retirements at a glance We have enough storms in this season to start this section (four), but nothing is worth retiring so far. My predictions: Andrea - 1% - It affected a variety of regions, but it is not going. Barry - 0.5% - If Arlene (2011) was not retired for affecting the same regions as Barry did, it is not going as well. Chantal - 0.1% - One death does not cut it in this case. Dorian - 0% - It regenerated after everyone said it was done, but I doubt it will go. Erin - 0.05% - There was some rain in the Cape Verdes, but if Fran (1984) was not retired for affecting Cape Verde, neither will Erin. Fernand - 0.8% -The flood threats from Fernand, along with eighteen fatalities, make Fernand the season's deadliest storm, but it is extremely doubtful it will go. Gabrielle - 0.1% - Some slight effects occured in Hispaniola, but it otherwise fell flat on its face. However, it did redeem itself. Humberto - 0.01% - Humberto did break our TS streak. However, it is staying, despite minor effects on Cape Verde. Ingrid - 10% - Ingrid does have a better chance than some of you think. It flooded up northeastern Mexico, and it is deadlier than Kenna and Anita, both of which got retired for primarily affecting Mexico. Depending on damage totals, my percentage should go up or down. AndrewTalk To Me 00:06, July 28, 2013 (UTC) ---- STO12's Predictions *ANDREA: 20% Caused some impact to Florida and the southeast, but not significant enough for a retirement. *BARRY: 15% Torrential rains in Central America, but not enough impact to sustain a retirement. *CHANTAL: 5% Caused very little impact to the windward islands, no retirement for Chantal. *DORIAN: 5% No impact to land as a tropical storm. It's remnants and regenerated tropical depression status did more. *ERIN: 0% No impact to land. *FERNAND ? Predictions for Fernand will be released once the storm has dissipated. [[User:STO12|'ST✪12']] 02:02, August 26, 2013 (UTC) :But what about its remnants? Wouldn't the remains of Dorian have a possibility to cause at least some impact/damage? Jeffrey1998 (talk) 04:16, July 28, 2013 (UTC) :::I agree, Dorian's remnants have a 10% chance of coming back. He still has a chance to do something. Ryan1000 10:43, July 28, 2013 (UTC) ::::You honestly think Dorian is going to regenerate? I don't and it's at 0% right now, so I was correct. Dorian was a fail to me, its remnants didn't do anything big. -.- [[User:STO12|'ST✪12']] 23:11, July 30, 2013 (UTC) ::::::I said that two days ago, when it had a chance of regenerating. But now, he's dead. Dorian never did jack sh!t. Ryan1000 03:23, July 31, 2013 (UTC) ---- Here's my predictions: *Andrea - 5% - Caused some impact to the southeast, but too little impact for retirement. *Barry - 1% - Affected Mexico, but it will not be retired. *Chantal - 0.1% - Caused very little impact. *Dorian - 0% - Fail, but surprised us by regenerating after everyone thought it was done. *Erin - 0% - EPIC FAIL! *Fernand - 10% - I never expected it to be as bad as this. It killed 18 people. But still, since Mexico rarely retires names, I don't think it is going. *Gabrielle - 1% - Not much impact. *Humberto - 0% - It became the season's first hurricane, but no land impacts, so no retirement here. *Ingrid - 15% - Lots of flooding in Mexico and 19 deaths, but considering Mexico's track record... *Jerry - 0% - Fishie. [[User:Steven09876 |'''Steven09876]] ''T'' | ' 16:00, July 28, 2013 (UTC) RyanK is here: *Andrea - 2% - Not much different from Alberto '06. Caused some flooding, but nothing severe. *Barry - 2% - Just like Bret '05. Some damage, some deaths, but for Mexico, it's not enough. *Chantal - 1% - I was really hoping to see more from Chantal, but it fell flat on it's face in the open Caribbean...Still, tack a 1% on it for the death in the Dominican Republic. *Dorian - 0% - It tried, but failed. *Erin - 0% - What a disgrace. *Fernand - 8% - Worse than Barry, but still not retirement-worthy. *Gabrielle - 0% - What a dissapointing storm...yeah it came back but still, it was weak and caused no damage or deaths. *Humberto - <5% - Still active, but probably won't affect land. *Ingrid - 10% - 19 deaths is a reasonable retirement number, but considering Mexico's track record... *Jerry - <1% - Looks like it'll be a fish. That's all for now. 'Ryan1000' 16:19, July 28, 2013 (UTC) '''THIS... IS... SPARTA!!!!' *Andrea = 5%. She did cause a bit of hype along the northeast but her impacts were not life-threatening, just too petty. *Barry = 1%. That name did give me the creeps when I first saw it on the list but he is nothing more than a candidate for 2019's hurricane list. *Chantal = 0%. That was absolutely dreadful. *Dorian Gray = -∞%. What the bloody hell was that? ' *Erin = -∞%. FACEHOOF. EPIC FAIL. BOOOOOOOOO!!!!! Cape Verde will not do this, they didn't feel a THING from this shy kid! *Fernand= 5%. I just ate my free Nando's. Mexico, no way. This ain't going NO-WEH. *Gabby = 2% OMG the second life, shadow of the dead! Canada didn't feel a thing. *Humberdoughnut = 3% I LIKE TRAINS AND MINE TURTLES, THIS ONE PRODUCED A MASSIVE SHINY DOUGHNUT :O D'OH! (''Iceland won't do it. Neither will Africa. I got the remnants from Humberto but he provided me with warm late summer weather earler this week. It was true, look up on ITV Weather.) *Ingrid = 38% Outshined by Manuel. Manuel was too evil. *Jerry Springer= 100% ONLY KIDDING, mouse, you haven't even formed yet lol I LIKE TRAINS 23:32, September 26, 2013 (UTC) I thought I had done my already anyways. Andrea:3% believe it or not she has been one of the most interesting so far but anyways just left some rains and three deaths. Retirement is out of the question. Barry:2% Knowing Mexico for sure will not recommend this fail for retirement.They don`t even retire big hurricanes like Karl then this one is going to stay,I am pretty sure no ones remember a TS Barry in Mexico. Chantal :1% Another system that sucumbs to the trade winds in the Ecab.Fail Dorian: 1% and the parade of fail continues that 1% is just because he regenerate when the majority didn`t thought he will. Erin:1%Did I really need to comment? It affect the Cape verde but if Fran in 1984 which I believe has been the most damaging and deadliest storm there which caused at least 32 deaths wasn`t retire then this one for sure will not for just rain Fernand: 8% Not a fail but nothing that Mexico haven`t seen before Gabrielle 1% She is finally out, that percent is for slight flooding in the virgin islands and PR Humberto 1% Our first hurricane and some rain to the cape verde islands but nothing more.His second life was a bust. Ingrid: 10% I would love to give her a little more but she was not as bad as predict an Manuel is describe as being worse than her by Mexico news.So she is not going sorry.Manuel really put her at nothing now. .Allanjeffs 21:56, August 18, 2013 (UTC) We don't have anything that stands a chance of retirement so far, but I'll put mine in anyway: *Andrea: 4% - Caused some hype along the US East Coast, but the impacts weren't all that much. Basically what Liz said. *Barry: 2% - It killed 3 people, but considering the fact that those deaths were in the ever-conservative Mexico, retirement isn't happening. *Chantal: 1% - 1 death in the Dominican Republic, and it was very blustery in Saint Lucia. Blown to pieces before it could do much else. *Dorian: 0% - It impressed us by regenerating after being dead for a week, but it had no impacts on land, so no. *Erin: 0% - A bit of rain in Cape Verde, and zilch after that. *Fernand: 10% - Barry Plus. I did not expect as many as 13 people to die from this thing (the 5 in Honduras were from the precursor wave, so I'm not sure if they count), but if Arlene '11 didn't go, then neither will Fernand. *Gabrielle: 0% 3% - A waste of tropical energy. **Managed to regenerate and it's more impressive now than it ever was. We'll see what happens, but it shouldn't be too bad in Bermuda. **Cool to watch in its second life. Minimal impact in Bermuda, but I heard that flooding was apparently severe in the Virgin Islands. No damage or fatality figures as of now, though. *Humberto: 0% - We got our first hurricane out of Humby, but as far as effects on land go, it was nothing more than a re-Erin for Cape Verde. *Ingrid: 15% - Worse than Fernand, but still not bad enough to warrant retirement. Manuel royally outshined Ingrid. --'''Dylan (Hurricane 99) 01:21, August 19, 2013 (UTC) Btw I discover that the Cape verdes are not a member in the group that represents the Atlantic basin that is why maybe Fran was not retire.I imagine that even if a storm affects Africa it will not be retire as they are not members of the same region.Allanjeffs 18:34, August 24, 2013 (UTC) Very interesting, Allan. This would also explain why Beryl '82 and Delta '05 were not retired. They both affected the Cape Verdes/Canaries to a considerable extent, too. (I don't care if Delta was a Greek letter name, it should have been retired!) AndrewTalk To Me 19:11, August 24, 2013 (UTC) : Well, maybe in the future if a hurricane causes enough damage somehwere in Africa or in southern Europe (1842 Spain Hurricane), maybe the WMO could consider those countries for the North Atlantic group in the future. Andrew, as far as I know, the WMO discussed the naming lists in detail after 2005. Had the unnamed Azores subtropical storm been discovered operationally everything would've been pushed back 1 name, Wilma would've been Alpha, and we would've ended at Eta. The WMO said if a greek-named hurricane causes enough damage to warrant retirement, the name will be retired, but instead of being replaced with any particular name, the next time a hurricane season reaches the greek alphabet, the retired greek name will be skipped and the next one will be used instead (I.E. Alpha, Beta, Gamma, if Beta becomes retired). No greek names in 2005 were retired, though Beta could've gotten a lot stronger if it remained offshore Nicaragua longer. I doubt we'll see any hurricane season in the near future that will go as far down the list as 2005 did, but with the way this active cycle has gone, anything is possible. Ryan1000 02:34, August 25, 2013 (UTC) : Gamma shouldn`t have been retire because damaga was not enough and if one of them should had been retire would have been 2005 as it was the deadliest of all the Greek letters.Allanjeffs 05:04, August 26, 2013 (UTC) ::You mean Gamma? And look at this and tell me damage wasn't severe. 19 people died and Delta wrought $364 million in damage. Considering all the destruction was on the Canary Islands, that's pretty bad. I'm not sure if it would've been retired if the Canary Islands were part of the WMO group that represents the Atlantic basin, but still. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 13:36, August 26, 2013 (UTC) ::::I'm don't think Spain is part of the WMO's list of countries in the North Atlantic, but if it is, or was, they sure would've retired Delta if they had the chance. The only disasters the Canary Islands see that are worse than rare storms like Delta are eruptions from the volcanoes on the islands (uncommon) or massive earthquakes/tsunamis from the Azores-Gibraltar Transform Fault that caused the great Lisbon Earthquake of 1755 (extremely rare). But 19 deaths and 364 million in damage are definitely retirement-worthy numbers, especially for them. Ryan1000 15:23, August 26, 2013 (UTC) ::::Thanks Dylan yes it was Gamma,and Spain is not part of the region only NAmer Central America and the Caribbean islands too.I believe Colombia may be but not remember I will ask my friend to give me the page again of the members,But the WMO can still ask for retirement if the country doesn`t ask that is the rule.I am not sure why they never ask for Gordon or Hanna though.Allanjeffs 21:18, August 27, 2013 (UTC) ::::Gordon was not retired because Haiti, for some unknown (and possibly unexcusable) reason, did not send a delegate to the WMO retirement conference. I assume Hanna stayed for the same reason. AndrewTalk To Me 21:26, August 27, 2013 (UTC) ::::In 1994 Haiti was suffering a civil war one of the worst of the country I imagine that is the prime reason as no one was interested in that kind of things in a period like that,Not sure with Hanna,and like I say if the country delegate don`t ask for retirement member of the WMO might.Allanjeffs 21:41, August 27, 2013 (UTC) Well, even if Spain isn't part of the list of countries in the WMO, I bet that they could nominate a name if they so wished to. But the main areas are North America, Central America, the Caribbean, or, in the case of Fabian, Bermuda. If a big hurricane hits Spain/Portugal in the future I bet they could nominate it, but it's highly unlikely and they're in a pretty tight economic situation anyways. Asking for a hurricane name to be retired isn't likely something they would ask for. Ryan1000 22:25, August 27, 2013 (UTC) My bets: *All - 0% - This year sucks. --Isaac829 19:53, September 5, 2013 (UTC) Pretty much this. ^ Ryan1000 22:12, September 5, 2013 (UTC) my turn: Ingrid: 27% everyone else: nope 'nuf said Leeboy100 (talk) 00:30, October 2, 2013 (UTC) Mid-season predictions This is the time of the season when CSU and NOAA issue their mid-season forecasts for the remainder of the season. To concide with their recent predictions, I will release my personal mid-season predictions in this section. If anyone else would like to have a say in the activity for the rest of this Atlantic hurricane season, please feel free to post it here. For the remainder of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, I predict: 16 named storms (Pablo), 7''' hurricanes, '''3 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 155. The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season has had a very weak start. Although we have had four tropical storms, none of them have been strong or destructive. My previous prediction called for 21 named storms, 13 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricane. However, this forecast assumed June and July would be hectic. In reality, these two months were pathetic. A good analouge for this season, in my opinion, would be 2003, 2007, or 2010. All three of these seasons had sluggish June-Augusts, but then imploded in September. 2013 is poised to do the same. Also, I think we could see a re-Isabel or re-Ivan this season. In addition, it should be noted both 2003 and 2007 had a power outage of strong storms. 2007 had plenty of storms (fifteen), but only one storm (Dean) lasted longer than a week. 2003 had three impressive major hurricanes (Fabian, Isabel, and Kate), but was otherwise a dud season, minus Juan. I think 2013 will also be devoid of many strong system. This is why my forecast calls for a truckload of storms, but a disproportionate amount of hurricanes. AndrewTalk To Me 16:18, August 7, 2013 (UTC) Andrew 2013 has been extremely active.It already has 4 name storms.2010 have Danielle until August 21 so give it a chance.I believe we are going to get between 16 to 17 names storms 8 to 9 hurricanes and 4 to 5 majors.Allanjeffs 19:16, August 7, 2013 (UTC) : I think we'll get a very active season this year; my predictions in my blog could actually be lackluster, I wouldn't be surprised if we get an explosion of activity in late August and September and possibly even run the table this year. I'm predicting a total of 18-21 named storms, 7-11 hurricanes, and 3-6 majors. The heart of the season is still yet to come. Don't lose hope for this year just yet. Ryan1000 19:20, August 7, 2013 (UTC) ::I'll throw my hat in the ring and predict 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 01:00, August 23, 2013 (UTC) :::I'm thinking 11 named storms, 3 (or 4) hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane. This is looking like a near-average to inactive season. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 02:29, August 29, 2013 (UTC) :::Steven, I think you are seriously underestimating the potential future activity for this season. The only reason we have not gone bonkers like 2005 or 2008 yet is because the SAL is keeping all these tropical waves in check. However, today, the SAL will depart the Atlantic for good, and from here on out, we could see a mega-explosion in activity. 1967, 1977, 1984, 1988, and 2001 had no hurricanes yet by this time in the season, yet all of them ended with at least five (1967 had six and 2001 had nine). 1961 had a record-dead August, but once September came, the Atlantic went nuts with five tropical storms, four of which (Betsy-Esther) ultimately became major hurricanes, and then had two major hurricanes form in October (Frances and Hattie). 1964 also went crazy after August (five major hurricanes formed after September 1!!!). The truth is, we actually have a long way to go, and now is not the time to write off the season. I now think 16 tropical storms, 8''' hurricanes, and '''4 major hurricanes will be our final tally. AndrewTalk To Me 02:52, August 29, 2013 (UTC) ::::Alright, I'm now thinking 14 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. Looks like the Atlantic might explode in September after all. But still, this season will be nowhere near the activity of 2010, 2011, and 2012. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 03:13, August 29, 2013 (UTC) ::::::Yeah, this season isn't over yet. The Saharan Air Layer is starting to die down and the MJO will peak over the next two weeks. SST's are still above-normal for the Atlantic, and conditions are ripe for an explosion of activity to occur from here until say, late October. The two AOIs (one in the Central Atlantic, the other over Africa) have unfavorable conditions for now, but they could move into more favorable conditions later on. The Atlantic is far from dead; if you ask me it's just sleeping for now. But when it wakes up, it'll take off. Ryan1000 13:33, August 29, 2013 (UTC) ::::::Because of the heavy shear and lack of the season to get on with it, I am downgrading my prediction to 14 total storms, 4''' hurricanes, '''1 major hurricane, and an ACE of 60. Unless we pull a 2001 explosion of activity, we are doomed. AndrewTalk To Me 11:37, September 6, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::I'm surprised the Atlantic has been so lackluster in activity...the SAL and wind shear are more persistent than I (and many climate experts + NHC) thought they'd be. Ryan1000 15:03, September 6, 2013 (UTC) I now predict that we will end at 12-11-2-0. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 23:11, September 29, 2013 (UTC) Post-Season Changes This could've begun a little sooner, but Andrea's TCR was released on the 22nd, 8 days ago. Not much has changed, winds are still 65 mph (55 knots), and it caused around 25 million in insured losses and 1 direct death in NC, 3 indirect ones from traffic accidents. Anyone have opinions on what will happen post-season? I think there might have been a storm in the Atlantic in June earlier from what was 92L on June 6, if not a storm a brief depression. Ryan1000 19:40, August 30, 2013 (UTC) I could see a slight change in damages for Barry, and a slight intensity upgrade for Fernand and Dorian's second life. And I doubt Invest 92L will be classified. I do not know whether or not it had a closed circulation. AndrewTalk To Me 13:23, September 1, 2013 (UTC) Supposedly Ascat or oscat show a close circulation might be upgrade but it might not like 92L in 2010 which it wasn`t.Allanjeffs 00:56, September 2, 2013 (UTC)